Last updated 5 September 2026.
Every match page shows a chance for each outcome — home win, draw, away win. This page explains exactly what that number is, because a percentage with no provenance is worth nothing.
The figure is a market-implied probability: the price at which people are currently willing to trade that outcome on a public market, expressed as a percentage. The number is not xgoal’s own estimate: we run no rating model and publish no view of our own on the result.
The same number is shown in decimal form on the match page, as 100 divided by the probability. A 25% chance is a decimal 4.00. The two are the same figure in two notations, and the block is headed “Match odds” because that is the form most readers recognise.
Raw prices across the three outcomes do not sum to exactly 100%. We normalise them so they do, which removes the built-in margin and leaves a fair price. Where a match has no traded market, the figures are implied from bookmaker prices instead, and the page says how many books were averaged.
Prices are polled every minute and the series is stored, which is what the swing chart on a match page draws: how the market moved before kick-off and during the match. Scores, line-ups and tables refresh on their own schedule from the match data feed.
It is not advice and not a recommendation, and it says nothing about how the match will end. A market can be wrong, thin, or slow to react to news such as a late injury; a 90% chance loses roughly one time in ten. xgoal takes no bets and carries no bookmaker or affiliate links. 18+.